Trott Trails Bentivolio in First Poll of 11th District Race

He may trail his incumbent opponent by double-digits, but Birmingham attorney Dave Trott is hopeful the first official poll of the 11th Congressional District shows he's in good position to knock out U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio R-Milford, in a party primary. 

Bentivolio, in the midst of his first two-year term following the Thaddeus McCotter petition scandal, leads Trott — the only opponent to date — 59.55 percent to 40.45 percent, according to a recent poll.

The poll is a collaborative effort between Murray Communications, a Michigan-based Republican political consulting firm; Portable Insights, a Rhode Island-based opinion research company; and Combat Data Inc., a Michigan-based political data and voter outreach services company.

The automated, two-question phone survey occurred throughout the district on Sept. 10, and had a margin of error of 3.66 percent. More than half of the 717 participants were women, who, in all, supported Bentivolio with 62 percent of the responses, data shows. Men liked him too, providing roughly 56 percent of favorable responses. 

"Bentivolio's numbers are stronger than I expected them to be, given the media coverage of some of his public statements," said Patrick Murray of Murray Communications.

But observers noted Trott's strong showing despite his relatively new campaign in the race.

"It's surprising to see Trott start so well since he has not really started to campaign," said Brian Bellgowan of Combat Data. "Nothing catches a 19 percent deficit faster than resources and time, both of which Trott has."

Trott announced earlier this month that he would challenge Bentivolio in the sprawling 11th District, which stretches from Wayne and Livingston counties into Oakland County.

His campaign took the poll numbers in stride.

"This is an excellent starting benchmark for a candidate like Dave Trott who has been in the race for only one week,"said Megan Piwowar, his campaign manager.